Spring is almost here — and so is a gut punch to anyone hoping 2026 would finally bring mortgage rate relief.

Rates surged to 7-month highs this week. The 30-year fixed hit 6.41% by Friday, up from 6.09% just three days earlier. That's the worst 3-day jump since April 2025. If you're locked in below 5%, congratulations — and never sell. If you've been sitting on the sidelines waiting for rates to drop before buying or refinancing, you just watched that window slam shut again.

What's driving it? The Iran war. Conflict in the Middle East is stoking inflation fears, and bonds have been selling off hard. That has nothing to do with anything you did, or anything the Fed did — and there's nothing you can do about it except understand that these are the new ground rules for homeownership in 2026.

On the NYC policy front, homeowners and co-op boards need to track two things simultaneously.

First: 485x, the tax break that was supposed to replace 421a and encourage affordable housing construction, is doing the opposite. Developers are gaming the wage-threshold rules by building fewer, larger, pricier units. The data is unambiguous — we're getting less affordable housing per square foot than under the program it replaced. If your neighborhood was counting on new affordable development, temper your expectations.

Second: a state court just struck down NYC's source-of-income voucher protections, throwing Section 8 arrangements into chaos for landlords and tenants alike. If you own rental property — or a co-op in a building with rental units — the legal ground just shifted under you. Get clarity from a property attorney before making any decisions about existing voucher tenants.

None of this is abstract. Rising rates reduce buying power, and less new supply keeps prices firm. That's good for your equity short-term but bad for the city's long-term stability — and terrible for anyone hoping to move up the housing ladder.

The spring market is open. It's just more expensive than anyone wanted.